“Art of the long view”

Amazing words were uttered by our President today – “long-term perspective.” Good night!

No, really, I can’t leave you hanging like that. When questioned about the stock market today, President Obama remarked, correctly I think, that he cannot allow himself to be frustrated by the day-to-day, hour-to-hour fluctuations of life’s biggest poker tournament – the free market and all its brood – the Dow, the NASDAQ, the FTSE. You get my drift, right? Long-term thinking has been completely missing from our modern dialogue, with the last eight, nay sixteen years, completely devoid of thinking about a practical future for us all.

Instead, President Obama suggested that one take a long term view of the market, and encouraged the market to invest given such cheap prices (Unfortunately, Mr. President, the market is not yet done with the losses it has been facing for the better part of a year). But it is not out of knee-jerk fashion that we should invest. On the contrary, Mr. Obama suggests we should go long. That would indeed be a very new concept for many of us that can’t look past the next ten tasks in our planners.

Many years ago, I read a fantastic book entitled The Art of the Long View: Planning for a Future in an Uncertain World by Peter Schwartz. It continues to have an influence on me in that it discusses the concept of scenario-building, something I do every day in my work. It's titles seems to have influenced our fearless leader. Though I do not agree with all of Mr. Obama’s policies and aims, I do understand and agree with his long-term perspective. The devil will always be in the details. Ultimately, it will be a little art, a little science, and a little dance.

As I listen to Mr. Obama, it is clear that an overwhelming shift of the burden in this country is taking shape. The rich, who I daresay have had it pretty nice, will have to pay more for their position in society. On principle alone, I cannot accept this. We should all pay the same percentage, plain and simple. We should all pay on the top line and kill all the lawyers and accountants. I digress or do I? Science will play a major role in revamping the current tax system. Our collective future cannot be sustained by a progressive tax system – it is unfair and it is unwieldy. Proportional taxation must move front and center in our long view.

Art, or artfulness, seems to be one of Mr. Obama’s key strengths. He is erudite, articulate, and positioned as a man of the people. Though many of his foes in Congress see through the “man behind the curtain”, he has had an almost unthinkable impact on the general public. To some extent, I’m intrigued by his cult of personality as well. Will this be enough? Will the long train ride of energy, education, and healthcare carry the very long day ahead of us? Will we make it over the hill to the Promise Land? The ultimate answer from this lowly writer is “I don’t know.” And that’s downright scary.

But let us take Mr. Schwartz’s thinking to heart. Let us understand several possible scenarios that lie waiting in the darkness for all of us. Let the dance begin.

First, there is Scenario A, which I will call “The Chilling Afterglow”. In Scenario A, we continue down the same pathway on which we currently tread – individualistic greed driving unchecked consumption which in turn is accompanied by academic endangerment (I regret all the big words…I was on a roll). We will continue to look at the short view, mesmerized by its lofty returns and hope that somehow our kids will have a better future. Not all bad, but certainly not all good from my vantage point.

Second, there is Scenario B, which I call “Kumbaya”. Kumbaya is the ever present specter of socialism and collectivism. Though no modern free market country is currently free of all socialist accoutrements, they sure would like to be. Maybe the term “they” is too strong a term. Perhaps the term “we” best summarizes my point. But this is a little more than just some socialistic aspects. There are aspects of Mr. Obama’s long view that begin to reek of government takeover. There is too much Keynesian politic for my taste and at no income level do I want to be a burden to society. I should always pay my fair share.

Third, is Scenario C, which I call “Practical Governance”. Practical governance imagines a time when government truly lives up to its initial premise – of, by and for the people. It also means that the people must better govern their behavior and understand their ultimate place in the cycle of life. It neither contemplates complete government control or the chilling afterglow imagined above. Is it naïve to think we can make this journey, find the Promise Land? I think it is. Truly, I am concerned not only about my daughter and her generation but I worry about my own.

So, Mr. Obama, I am buoyed by your call to action and your long-term view of things. It is an amazing time to be an American. It is my hope that all of us should live long to dance to another song. But let us be careful not to invoke one single song on the masses, or worse yet, charge outrageous fees to play the song at all. Dance away!

As always, be thankful for what you have, buy only what you need, and work diligently for peace. I shall try to do the same. From inside the window, I bid you a good night and a fantastic Wednesday.